Coronavirus Page 6

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Alfred J Kipper

  • Saturday 14th March 2020, 8:23am [Edited]
  • Aldershot, England
  • 6,362 posts

COBRA meeting to discuss national shortage of lemonade jokes. Alarming news. :(

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lofthouse

  • Saturday 14th March 2020, 8:37am
  • Nowhere, England
  • 9,923 posts

Vaccine on the way apparently!

UK scientists to the rescue

RIP all the mice n monkeys who helped

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chipolata

  • Saturday 14th March 2020, 10:21am
  • England
  • 30,101 posts

As far as I understand it, the British government's strategy is to rely less on a vaccine and more on herd immunity to protect us all. It's tough on the old and sick who have to die for us to reach that point, but you can't make an omelet etc.

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Billy Bunter

  • Saturday 14th March 2020, 10:49am [Edited]
  • The Sussex Coast, England
  • 1,474 posts
Quote: chipolata @ 14th March 2020, 10:21 AM

As far as I understand it, the British government's strategy is to rely less on a vaccine and more on herd immunity to protect us all. It's tough on the old and sick who have to die for us to reach that point, but you can't make an omelet etc.

I think you'll find the old & sick will be dying sooner rather than later anyway (and I include myself in that synopsis). The trouble is that society - including the NHS - now treat old age as a curable disease rather than letting people go peacefully and with dignity when our time comes.

There are an average of 17,000 deaths from flu in the UK every year - as many as 24,000 in 2014/15. We didn't have all this panic then. I've got three trips to the theatre this coming week - two in central London - and two nights booked in Bournemouth the following week. And am still planning to go. I'm blowed if I'm going to spend what's left of my time staying indoors looking out of the window.

Of course, if I catch it, I will self-isolate to avoid passing it on but I'm not isolating myself In fear of catching it.

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Rood Eye

  • Saturday 14th March 2020, 11:59am
  • England
  • 4,103 posts
Quote: Billy Bunter @ 14th March 2020, 10:49 AM

two nights booked in Bournemouth . . . I'm blowed

More chance of that in Brighton, I would have thought.

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Lazzard

  • Saturday 14th March 2020, 2:27pm
  • Ludlow, England
  • 4,872 posts
Quote: Billy Bunter @ 14th March 2020, 10:49 AM

Of course, if I catch it, I will self-isolate to avoid passing it on but I'm not isolating myself In fear of catching it.

Just make sure you don't mingle with the rest of us in the five days before you know you've actually got it and are already shedding the virus like a gritting-lorry in winter.

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rrr 969

  • Saturday 14th March 2020, 5:12pm [Edited]
  • Odessa, Ukraine
  • 243 posts
Quote: Billy Bunter @ 14th March 2020, 10:49 AM

I think you'll find the old & sick will be dying sooner rather than later anyway (and I include myself in that synopsis). There are an average of 17,000 deaths from flu in the UK every year - as many as 24,000 in 2014/15. We didn't have all this panic then. I've got three trips to the theatre this coming week - two in central London - and two nights booked in Bournemouth the following week. And am still planning to go. I'm blowed if I'm going to spend what's left of my time staying indoors looking out of the window.

Of course, if I catch it, I will self-isolate to avoid passing it on but I'm not isolating myself In fear of catching it.

I will add other citations, there is somewhere a yearly graph that shows that this year is yet less "severe" in (SARS) Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome than before:
"The USA's Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) does publish estimates of the number of flu cases annually, including estimates for the number of hospitalisations and the number of deaths. The number of cases has ranged from nine million to 45 million a year, and the number of deaths ranged from 12,000 to 61,000.

"till Wednesday March 11, there were over 120,000 confirmed cases Globally and over 4,300 deaths." (covid-19)

"death rate for covid-19 is higher only because the number of specific covid-19 tests are for suspicious and more severe cases, in fact, death rate of covid-19 could be lower than that of the flu"

"mortality rates also appear to be higher for the new coronavirus, although the WHO does warn that the "true mortality of Covid-19 will take some time to fully understand". Based on current data, the crude mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%--although the actual rate, when including mild cases where people do not get diagnosed, is likely to be lower. Globally, for seasonal influenza, the WHO estimates the mortality rate is usually below 0.1%."

+ theguardian report the same for covid-19:
"Indeed experts say that, in reality, the mortality rate is likely to be nearer to 1% or less. In other words, more than 99% of those who become infected are expected to survive. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/how-many-will-die-of-coronavirus-in-the-uk-a-closer-look-at-the-numbers

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A Horseradish

  • Saturday 14th March 2020, 5:31pm [Edited]
  • United Kingdom
  • 7,624 posts
Quote: rrr 969 @ 14th March 2020, 5:12 PM

I will add other citations, there is somewhere a yearly graph that shows that this year is yet less "severe" in (SARS) Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome than before:
"The USA's Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) does publish estimates of the number of flu cases annually, including estimates for the number of hospitalisations and the number of deaths. The number of cases has ranged from nine million to 45 million a year, and the number of deaths ranged from 12,000 to 61,000.

"till Wednesday March 11, there were over 120,000 confirmed cases Globally and over 4,300 deaths." (covid-19)

"death rate for covid-19 is higher only because the number of specific covid-19 tests are for suspicious and more severe cases, in fact, death rate of covid-19 could be lower than that of the flu"

"mortality rates also appear to be higher for the new coronavirus, although the WHO does warn that the "true mortality of Covid-19 will take some time to fully understand". Based on current data, the crude mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%--although the actual rate, when including mild cases where people do not get diagnosed, is likely to be lower. Globally, for seasonal influenza, the WHO estimates the mortality rate is usually below 0.1%."

Interesting - and factual so far as it goes for which thanks - but it also raises new questions.

Does the global rate for flu include Africa or is Africa excluded because of the following?

Quote from WHO:

"The impact of influenza infection in Africa is not very well documented. However, the information we do have shows that influenza has a significant impact on morbidity and mortality. In the region, influenza viruses are important respiratory pathogens, and acute respiratory tract infections, such as pneumonia, are a major cause of death, particularly among children. For example, in 2002 an influenza outbreak in Madagascar had a case-fatality rate of 3%.

A number of African countries have provided regular updates to WHO on the spread of influenza A (H1N1) 2009. However, the impact of the pandemic on the African continent is not apparent, which indicates a need to strengthen surveillance systems to assess the effect of the pandemic and monitor the impact of influenza in general ...........The absence of adequate information, lack of awareness of the disease and competing public health needs, has meant that no specific interventions have been developed to reduce the impact of influenza in Africa."

What about India and surrounding countries, Latin America and other areas where there appears to be limited information on flu? According to the Hindustan Times, India in 2018 had confirmed 5,651 cases and 464 deaths from H1N1, the predominant flu strain across states, in that year up to 7 October. That of itself is 8.2%.

WHO says of western countries that while thousands of people do die of flu, it is quite rare for influenza to be put as the cause of death on death certificates. So to my mind if we are just comparing Covid-19 with what is on the certificates for death by flu, it would be a false comparison. But is it?

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rrr 969

  • Sunday 15th March 2020, 1:21am [Edited]
  • Odessa, Ukraine
  • 243 posts

covid is different from flu,
and, .., nothing more.

it is a perfect informational case for informational society that is concerned not on what is actually sees around but in and by reports, +people are dying so it becomes an emotional blackmail - u cannot critique any overreaction and say more about economic impact.

Just now on Al Jazeera expert said that covid-19 mortality number of people younger 60 globally is Zero point zero. No one died. If u r a pensioner AND NOW u have pneumonia only then u have to worry. But people with pneumonia have to be worried anyway.

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DaButt

  • Sunday 15th March 2020, 4:56am
  • The Lone Star State, United States
  • 13,949 posts
Quote: rrr 969 @ 15th March 2020, 1:21 AM

Just now on Al Jazeera expert said that covid-19 mortality number of people younger 60 globally is Zero point zero. No one died.

That is absolutely untrue.

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Kenneth

  • Sunday 15th March 2020, 7:58am
  • Australia
  • 5,437 posts
Quote: Billy Bunter @ 14th March 2020, 10:49 AM

I'm blowed if I'm going to spend what's left of my time staying indoors looking out of the window.

"'Ware beaks, Bunter!" breathed Bob Cherry hoarsely.

Image
Quote: rrr 969 @ 15th March 2020, 1:21 AM

Just now on Al Jazeera expert said that covid-19 mortality number of people younger 60 globally is Zero point zero. No one died.

Total bollocks. Deliberately spreading misinformation is dumb, unless you were attempting satire?

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Billy Bunter

  • Sunday 15th March 2020, 10:06am
  • The Sussex Coast, England
  • 1,474 posts
Quote: Lazzard @ 14th March 2020, 2:27 PM

Just make sure you don't mingle with the rest of us in the five days before you know you've actually got it and are already shedding the virus like a gritting-lorry in winter.

The same could be said of anybody of course.

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Lazzard

  • Sunday 15th March 2020, 10:10am
  • Ludlow, England
  • 4,872 posts
Quote: Billy Bunter @ 15th March 2020, 10:06 AM

The same could be said of anybody of course.

Obviously.
Which is why social distancing wherever possible is important.
To purposely go out and about when you don't need to is irresponsible.

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Billy Bunter

  • Sunday 15th March 2020, 11:34am [Edited]
  • The Sussex Coast, England
  • 1,474 posts

Can't help feeling that putting all theatres, cinemas, museums, coffee shops, restaurants, hotels and all forms of public transport out of business, and all their employees out of work, is even more irresponsible in the long term.

And keeping well isn't all about avoiding viruses. There is the mental aspect of being locked up indefinitely 24/7, effectively, for many, in solitary confinement, to consider.

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Rood Eye

  • Sunday 15th March 2020, 6:37pm [Edited]
  • England
  • 4,103 posts
Quote: Billy Bunter @ 15th March 2020, 11:34 AM

There is the mental aspect of being locked up indefinitely 24/7, effectively, for many, in solitary confinement, to consider.

There is some truth in that but we're not comparing four months of solitary confinement with four months of total freedom or even with some other form of sanction.

We are comparing four months of solitary confinement with a significant chance of death.

My very confident proposition is that if every person now on death row were offered a pardon on condition they served four months in solitary before being released, you'd have an almost-100% acceptance rate.

In fact, if the offer were changed to four years, I think it would still be a very popular offer indeed.

PS. And let's not forget that in the coronavirus situation, the solitary confinement includes unlimited access to TV and radio, unlimited incoming telephone calls, and their usual food & drink.