I read the news today oh boy! Page 2327

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Lazzard

  • Wednesday 13th October 2021, 9:30am [Edited]
  • Ludlow, England
  • 5,658 posts
Quote: paulted @ 12th October 2021, 8:29 PM

...we can only speculate.

Or calculate.
The progress of the disease was pretty mathematical.

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DaButt

  • Wednesday 13th October 2021, 3:40pm
  • The Lone Star State, United States
  • 14,141 posts
Quote: Lazzard @ 13th October 2021, 9:30 AM

Or calculate.
The progress of the disease was pretty mathematical.

I just did some quick calculations and found that the death rates in the UK and US are almost identical. It doesn't appear that the much more severe lockdowns and protocols in the UK had much of an impact.

At this point, Covid has become a political talking point and an economic feeding trough. I don't believe that any politician could make a meaningful dent in a pandemic, but they're pretty damn good at using it to further their agendas - and we're all worse off because of it.

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Billy Bunter

  • Wednesday 13th October 2021, 6:26pm [Edited]
  • The Sussex Coast, England
  • 1,896 posts
Quote: paulted @ 12th October 2021, 8:29 PM

we can only speculate.

Quote: Lazzard @ 13th October 2021, 9:30 AM

Or calculate.
The progress of the disease was pretty mathematical.

Quote: DaButt @ 13th October 2021, 3:40 PM

I just did some quick calculations and found that the death rates in the UK and US are almost identical. It doesn't appear that the much more severe lockdowns and protocols in the UK had much of an impact.

As DaButt suggests above, there is no evidence that locking down saved any lives. So, as Paulted says, it is all pure speculation. It can't be anything else.

What we do know is that locking down certainly cost lives (with mental health issues, with the cancellation of on-going treatment and scheduled operations and with the inability to see GPs). And that it also had an adverse effect on the education of a generation.

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chipolata

  • Wednesday 13th October 2021, 7:08pm
  • England
  • 30,440 posts
Quote: Billy Bunter @ 13th October 2021, 6:26 PM

As Da Butt suggests above, there is no evidence that locking down saved any lives. So, as Paulted says, it is all pure speculation. It can't be anything else.

What we do know is that locking down certainly cost lives (with mental health issues, with the cancellation of on-going treatment and scheduled operations and with the inability to see GPs). And that it also had an adverse effect on the education of a generation.

You have a tendancy to conflate a lot of issues into one simple anti-lockdown argument. It's a bit more complex than that. For example, even without lockdown operations etc would have been cancelled as the NHS dealt with surging Covid cases. I agree about mental health issues caused by lockdown, but arguably there'd have been just as many caused by a rampant out of control virus.

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lofthouse

  • Wednesday 13th October 2021, 7:33pm
  • Nowhere, England
  • 10,412 posts

If a Corbyn government had been responsible for what happened in our care homes during this pandemic- people would be wanted him arrested for manslaughter , then hung drawn and quartered

Old vulnerable people who at their late time of life ask only to be taken care of in their twighlight years - sadly for them when they needed help the most they were horrifically let down

This will never ever be forgotten

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Billy Bunter

  • Wednesday 13th October 2021, 7:42pm [Edited]
  • The Sussex Coast, England
  • 1,896 posts
Quote: chipolata @ 13th October 2021, 7:08 PM

even without lockdown operations etc would have been cancelled as the NHS dealt with surging Covid cases. I agree about mental health issues caused by lockdown, but arguably there'd have been just as many caused by a rampant out of control virus.

There you go with that word "arguably". That is exactly my (and, I assume, Paulted's point). I have stated what we know has happened. Why it happened and what might have happened under different circumstances can only be conjecture. Or speculation. Or, as you rightly call it, "arguable".

There are known knowns... ...known unknowns... ... and unknown unknowns...

Quote: lofthouse @ 13th October 2021, 7:33 PM

If a Corbyn government had been responsible for what happened in our care homes during this pandemic- people would be wanted him arrested for manslaughter , then hung drawn and quartered

Old vulnerable people who at their late time of life ask only to be taken care of in their twighlight years - sadly for them when they needed help the most they were horrifically let down

This will never ever be forgotten

Yes, I'm not arguing against that. Or the failure to shut down borders. Just the unproven assumption that locking down earlier would have saved lives - or indeed that locking down at all did save lives.

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Paul Wimsett

  • Wednesday 13th October 2021, 8:46pm [Edited]
  • Folkestone, United Kingdom
  • 3,419 posts

If a Theresa May government had the done the same, likewise.

I think David Cameron could have got away with it.

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chipolata

  • Thursday 14th October 2021, 6:44am
  • England
  • 30,440 posts
Quote: Billy Bunter @ 13th October 2021, 7:42 PM

There you go with that word "arguably". That is exactly my (and, I assume, Paulted's point). I have stated what we know has happened. Why it happened and what might have happened under different circumstances can only be conjecture. Or speculation. Or, as you rightly call it, "arguable".

Well, no, my point is that you have a very simplistic, tabloid and reductive "lockdown bad" argument. A point you pushed throughout the pandemic without ever backing it up with any facts.

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Lazzard

  • Thursday 14th October 2021, 9:47am [Edited]
  • Ludlow, England
  • 5,658 posts
Quote: DaButt @ 13th October 2021, 3:40 PM

I just did some quick calculations and found that the death rates in the UK and US are almost identical. It doesn't appear that the much more severe lockdowns and protocols in the UK had much of an impact.

First off, giving an overall figure for the US is problematic, as there was not one single policy on lockdown and Covid restrictions - it varied dramatically from state to state. An internal state comparison would be interesting - but those figures seem hard to come by.
In the meantime, some statistics.
Covid Mortality per million
USA - 2172
UK - 2057
So, not 'almost identical' (though neither are figures to be particularly proud of).
Scaling it up, if the USA had done as "well" as the UK they would have had 37,720 fewer deaths.
If they'd done as well as France (1665 per million) we're talking 166,000 less deaths.
If the UK had done as well as France we'd have saved over 25,000.
And if the US had reached the heady heights of Germany(1135 per million) it's over 340,000 fewer deaths.
For the UK, that would have meant 60,000 fewer.

I know which body of water I would choose to look across for lessons in disease management.

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Billy Bunter

  • Thursday 14th October 2021, 2:12pm [Edited]
  • The Sussex Coast, England
  • 1,896 posts

From today's Grauniad https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/oct/13/mp-claudia-webbe-found-guilty-of-harassment :

"The MP Claudia Webbe is facing a potential jail sentence and demands to stand down from her seat after being found guilty of a campaign of harassment including threatening an acid attack... ...During the trial Paul Hynes QC, defending, read out a string of character references from figures including Corbyn, the former shadow chancellor John McDonnell and the former shadow home secretary Diane Abbott."

With friends like those...

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Lazzard

  • Thursday 14th October 2021, 2:32pm
  • Ludlow, England
  • 5,658 posts

Like Corbyn, she was rightly chucked out of the Labour Party. The sooner Abbott & McDonnell follow suit, the better.

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Lazzard

  • Thursday 14th October 2021, 3:34pm
  • Ludlow, England
  • 5,658 posts

Another nutter going round killing people - Denmark this time.
The only thing these people seem to have in common is that the police were already watching them.
Not bloody close enough, though, eh?

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DaButt

  • Thursday 14th October 2021, 4:17pm
  • The Lone Star State, United States
  • 14,141 posts
Quote: Lazzard @ 14th October 2021, 3:34 PM

Another nutter going round killing people - Denmark this time.

Norway, right?

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Chappers

  • Thursday 14th October 2021, 6:25pm
  • Surreyish., England
  • 32,700 posts
Quote: DaButt @ 14th October 2021, 4:17 PM

Norway, right?

Yes he did!